时间：2026-04-04 06:58:06 来源：NextGen Vision Insights

The algorithmic crypto paper trading and backtesting tool with TradingView alertspast four weeks have been brutal for bitcoin BTC $ 66,322.37 traders as prices keep chasing comments by President Donald Trump, who can't make up his mind about Iran.\n\nOne day he talks peace, and bitcoin and risk assets rally while oil drops; the next day he turns hawkish, sending bitcoin down and oil back up. Meanwhile, Iran declares the Strait of Hormuz is "closed forever," and analysts throw out wildly bullish and bearish oil targets. It's nearly impossible to navigate this choppy environment.\n\nTraders may be better off focusing on the following real indicators that actually matter. These, unfortunately, do not paint a positive picture for risk assets, including bitcoin.\n\nThe fate of the global economy and risk assets could hinge on the next couple of weeks as a managed oil disruption threatens to become an unmanaged one.\n\nAfter the Iran war began on Feb. 28, tanker traffic through the pivotal Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne oil trade, all but collapsed. In response, the International Energy Agency’s 32 member nations agreed to the largest coordinated strategic stock release in its 50‑year history – about 400 million barrels, later raised to 426 million as more countries pitched in.\n\nThose emergency barrels have been offsetting a supply shortfall of roughly 4.5 to 5 million barrels per day, the gap created by the near‑shutdown of Hormuz flows.\n\nBut now those reserves are expected to hit the wall in the next couple of weeks, in which case, that manageable deficit could double to roughly 10 to 11 million barrels per day – the projected deficit due to reserve depletion and disruption of normal flows.\n\nThe House of Saud described it as "a shock of unprecedented scale with no obvious buffer left to absorb it."\n\nSo it doesn’t matter whether Trump continues the war against Iran or stops. If oil supplies aren’t materially restored within the next two weeks, we could see massive risk aversion across both crypto and traditional financial markets.\n\nA ship insurance premium is the payment a shipowner makes to an insurance company to protect against financial losses that could happen while operating the ship.\n\nInsurance costs for navigating the Strait of Hormuz have increased significantly, with reports indicating rates jumping from less than 1% of ship's value before the war to as high as 7.5% per trip. This means that a $100 million ship now has to pay around $2- $3 million in insurance, versus $250,000 before the conflict.\n\nWhen premiums drop below 2%, that’s the clearest sign the route is genuinely safer, and it's time to take risk in markets again. No press conference, briefing, or Truth Social post from Trump can replicate the certainty embedded in those prices.\n\nTrump has at times suggested that passage through the Strait of Hormuz can be secured, but so far, there is no clear evidence that tanker traffic has returned to anything like normal volumes.\n\nIn fact, only 21 tankers have transited Hormuz since the war began, compared with more than 100 ships daily before the conflict, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.\n\nA sustainable rally in risk assets requires this number to pick up materially; until then, Trump's attempts to calm markets are likely to be short-lived.

上一篇：Grayscale’s research head says tokenization will happen in waves and explains how to play it
下一篇：OpenAI raises a record $122 billion as revenue crosses $2 billion per month

• ·Galaxy Digital's testnet suffers hack but no client funds or information were compromised
• ·How Quantitative Trading supports smarter execution 663
• ·How Mobile Trading App improves daily trading workflows 939
• ·What makes a strong solution for Quantitative Trading 523
• ·Grayscale’s research head says tokenization will happen in waves and explains how to play it
• ·Advanced insights into Execution Speed 98
• ·Why more users are adopting Strategy Backtesting 902
• ·Common mistakes to avoid with Market Analysis 293
• ·Brazil's B3 exchange to offer bitcoin-linked 'event contracts' for the ultra-rich
• ·How Bot Performance improves daily trading workflows 116
• ·Common mistakes to avoid with Market Analysis 133
• ·What traders should know about Order Management 997
• ·Crypto rebounds as oil dips on Trump comments, but derivatives signal weak conviction
• ·Key benefits of Trade Automation for modern traders 655
• ·Common mistakes to avoid with Market Analysis 853
• ·Common mistakes to avoid with Market Analysis 213